Forecasting Gold Prices

Fri, 2010/02/26 - 11:42am | Your editor
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"The idea that you can actually predict what is going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the world," said George Soros. This presumably explains why he told the Davos World Economic Forum that gold was a bubble at the same time as he was investing in the yellow stuff for his own account.

On Dec. 1, 2008, the National Bank of Canada's Tanya Jakusonek surveyed gold analysts to get their prediction for the price of the barbarous relic over the following four years. The estimates for this year ranged from $1013 per oz (Credit Suisse) or $1000 (CIBC, Citigroup, Dundee, Raymond James, Scotia Capital, and Salman, all liking round numbers) right down to $591 for Versant Partners, $700 for Soleil-Bradford, $720 for UBS, and $725 for Deutsche Bank. The consensus average for 2010 was $866. So whatever made Mr. Soros change his mind, he is right about prediction.

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