Eye of Newt and Mitt the Bane
Michael Kurtz writes from Nomura in Hong Kong:
''Hong Kong-listed China stocks lagged for 2 years through late 2011 on a now well-aired combination of headwinds -- including counter-cyclical credit tightening; concerns about the sustainability of investment-led growth; profitability setbacks from rising labor (and other) costs; and uncertainties over 2012's leadership transition.
''The structural problems aren't going away any time soon; tough challenges remain squarely in China's path. Yet stocks' most immediate headwind -- the year-long credit stranglehold that fuelled fears of a 'hard landing' and mass business failures -- is easing, as December's 8-month-high new bank credit (of RMB 640bn) made clear. Further monetary relief lies ahead, in our view.
''To be sure, a 'soft patch' for Chinese demand appears upon us in the first half of 2012, owing chiefly to a pause in housing construction. But we think this was priced-in by H-shares' 21% 2H11 decline. With China stocks having de-rated by more than 30% to a region-low PER of 8 by Q4 2011, we think investors grew too downbeat on an economy still generating respectable medium-term demand growth.
''Indeed, our 2012 nominal GDP growth forecast of 11.9% still offers the Asia-Pacific region's 2nd-strongest platform for corporate earnings (after India's inflation-propped 14%). Against this, 2012 consensus H-share earnings growth of 11% strikes us as achievable.
''Moreover, our quarterly GDP forecasts suggest a 'V-shaped' recovery around midyear that China stocks should continue anticipating in the weeks ahead -- especially as further policy loosening provides a catalyst for portfolio cash deployment and short-covering.''
Today is vote day in the Home of Hanging Chads as Eye of Newt and Mitt the Bane fight it out. It reminds me of Greece. While Germany wants the European Union to supervise the Greek budget process to slash Athens' deficit, nobody is willing to let the Greeks supervise the German budget process to increase spending to help the Club Med.
Here in the US Florida can decide on our President in a farcical paper chase, but the rest of us have no say in how Florida determines the Republican presidential candidate.
Interestingly enough, hard-money Hayekian Peter Schiff also says to vote for Romney. Me too.
More mostly from Spain today with news also from Los Americas: Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Peru