Hindenburg Omen Returns
Just as I in my kerchief was getting set for a long winter's nap, a reminder that markets move even during the Yule season. Today's Neue Zuercher Zeitung perversely warns that a Hindenburg omen has formed. Its Michael Rasch writes (my translation from the German):
"Rather than predicting a Christmas rally, the positive bias of stock markets from shortly before Christmas to New Year, last week has set the stage for a reversal after the market rallies when the Fed announced lower quantitative easing levels going forward.
"This is the perverse result of last Friday's new market market highs also in European markets.
"In fact warning signals from past weeks remain intact and have been further confirmed. There have been 5 reversal signals [ed: since mid-November]. Five so-called Hindenburg Omens have been generated, a technical signal that a failure of market breadth forecasts a downward shift of market direction.
"An indicator for an uptrend reversing, a Hindenburg omen is generated when the following parameters are met:
"1) NYSE share trading indicates that for every share reaching a new high, there are 2.2% reaching a 52-week low;
"2) The number of new 52-week highs must not be more than twice as high as the number of new lows;
"3) The NYSE 50-day-average line must be rising;
"4) The McClellan-Oscillator, a measure of market breadth, and the dominant trend must be in negative territory.
"The more Hindenburg Omens found in a short period, the greater the validity of the signal to market watchers. [Ed; five is a lot.]
"Validation of a Hindenburg Omen occurs if a first omen is followed by another within 40 days. Since 1987 every US crash followed a Hindenburg omen. Signals forecasting a reversal with a 24% probability are followed, historically, with a 15% or higher drop from highs and a 75% probability of a price drop of at least 5%.
"Mis-signals are rare, but do happen, most recently in the summer of 2012 and also in the spring of this year.
"Analysis shows that misleading highs get investor votes for extremely optimistic outlook. This proves that a 'Euphoria Zone' has been reached. This applies both to retail investors and the writers of US stock newsletters [ed: touché] and well as to North American fund
managers. They ignore divergent indicators of the lack of breadth in the markets.
"The fundamental conditions for a drop already exist despite sunny forecasts, but technical analysts hesitate to draw conclusions from existing data showing a cloud over the stock market. Many observations now predict a clear correction early in January.
"However it may be overcome if institutional investors place new money into markets early in the new year."
Among Askenazim, Western European Jews, new-born babies are named for their dead ancestors. That happened to me and my parents also selected a secular name for me which I don't think any of my ancestors bore. The same pattern applied to all my cousins born in the USA named Beatrice, Jean, Sandra, and Alan--none Germanic.
We are offering three 3-mo trial subscriptions to the Financial Times Internet site, www.FT.com, with our latest contest. Because so many of you, surprisingly, were able to crack the German headline from NZZ, this one is deliberately harder.
I met an Oxford Israeli astrophysicist, an expert in LGMs, who worked out the Kabbalistic numerical value of my Hebrew name. It is 9, the highest possible number; the range is 0 to 9. You add up the numbers if there is more than one column, so, for example, 12 becomes 3 or 19 becomes 0. The numbers follow the sequence of the Hebrew alphabet, the Aleph Bet which you can find on google. Hebrew didn't have numerals until modern times.
Your only clues are: 1) my Hebrew name is not Chaya or Zoe, translations of Vivian.
2) Nor is my Hebrew name Aviva, however logical.
3) Two of the 6 letters of my secular name are also part of my Hebrew name.
Go figure out my Hebrew name.
As a tie-breaker, define LGMs. Ad astra per aspera. Answers to my email box. I don't expect many replies. Mazel tov; good luck.
Today's blog is late because thanks to advice from two readers, LD and DvN I removed from my laptop the google interference with my browsing.
More for paid subscribers follows from Australia, Brazil, Thailand, Israel, Britain, India, Ireland, South Africa, Eastern Europe, and Denmark, and Norway, including a stock trade.
By excess of marketeering, Google is driving me nuts. Everytime I type a G on a website opening page or even into a password box the google search engine springs into life and stops me working normally. I will have to switch search engines if they keep this up. I also use gmail for my corporate account and may have to drop that too. Why are they so arrogant that google comes out stupid? About 6 months ago they decided to block all "marketing mail" defined to also include my blogs going to paid subscribers.
Despite this, I have just managed to update the tables for our website, www.global-investing.com for the last time in 2013. You will see that it contains the 7th letter of the alphabet which results in the chirpy google chipmunk interfering with my move to my own site.
I will not do this again next weekend, when I will be in Washington DC for a family event; instead I will close the tables Jan. 1, 2014 for this year. If we change our email address I will let everyone know. We have done well of course thanks to a general rise of markets which I suspect will see us out of the year with a modest Christmas rally.
Pre-subscribers can view the closed positions tables. Only paid subscribers may view the two tables showing our current stocks and bonds; and exchange-traded and closed-end funds. You can view them on our site; spreadsheets are easier to read if you click for a "printer-friendly" version even if you don't want to print. More for paid subscribers follows.
Taper Discipline (re-send)
The winner of our German headline correction contest was one of our 2 subscribers named Reeves. His sub was extended for 3 months. We had a lot of responses including at least one from India showing that people still do study German but none from Germany or Switzerland based subscribers, perhaps because of the time zone difference.
I am not sure whether Tapering is masculine, feminine, or neuter. The error in the NZZ headline was using mir for mit. It should have read: "Das Fed beginnt mit dem Tapering". I found it funny because only half the words were German and one of them was misspelled.
The Chinese banking crisis came before the implementation of even partial liberalization of its financial system, via, for example, a free zone in Shanghai. This has kept the rout controlled within the country expect for the spillover to the Hang Seng index.
With the beginning of the taper of quantitative easing, global markets also will lose part of their addiction to cheap, abundant finance. There will be more discipline. Unlike in China, the impact will be multinational, but not necessarily wholly negative. Higher rates first of all will reward savers and those buying bonds in the future.
For equities, more expensive money will create a more sustainable financial market. Assets will be valued in a more balanced way rather than because of debt-finance being available. I expect fewer stock buy-backs when money gets tighter. Companies will not be able to borrow as freely to engage in value-destroying mergers and acquisitions. Some current proto-bubbles will not grow to dangerous proportions.
Flows into foreign stock- and bond-ETFs (exchange traded funds), which usually track broad indexes, have also been tapering. Redemptions are at new highs since the Fed last threatened to lower QE2 according EPFR which tracks flows.
Meanwhile our forte, stock-picking rather than buying indexes, will become more important. A rising tide lifts all boats. But a falling tide will hurt the leakiest and most speculative vessels.
So in general I am glad the the taper is starting, particularly since US growth over 4% in the last quarter probably was one of the factors leading to the Fed decision yesterday. (It was only announced today but the Fed gets numbers before the public.) Naturally I want the US to lead the world out of the global financial crisis which has held back economies for too long.
A stronger USA will start out by improving the outlook of America's closest neighbors and trading partners where we have boosted our positions, Mexico and Canada and probably also boost the loonie.
Also helping our region is the reversal of oil and gas finance flows overseas, with the money going to frackers and to stop flaring all that gas. This will go some way to making my retirement money go further. For economic as well as strategic reasons, I favor greater US energy independence. Why should we ship off huge sums of money annually to despotic regimes to feed our oil addiction?
I also hope that some of the bonus from fracking and offshore hydrocarbon finds will be shared with friendly countries because markets for oil and gas have always been global. Energy autarky makes no sense in an interrelated world.
The present regional imbalance may mark an end to the close correlation of markets. With exits from the largest emerging markets and from gold, the world may move away from a one-size-fits-all calculations of value. As the cost of money rises, the cost of risk will rise too. And markets, not central banks, will set interest rates. We'll focus on higher yielding stocks with less cyclical profits as rates begin to rise.
Our blog today finally will not have to chase chunks of news put out before the Christmas break. We have a major correction of one of may articles (oops), and news from Russia, Colombia, Spain, Ireland, China, Mexico, Africa, Hong Kong, and Britain.
This blog is being re-sent as I did not get my copy.
My main takeaway from the Greek investment round-up was from one of the two fund managers I met there named John.
While I enjoyed learning about a Greek lady shipowner challenging the men with her own highly leveraged complex of Tsakos companies, one yielding 10.66%, the idea of more investing in Marshall Islands incorporated Greek shippers terrifies. I rode up with Dryships Inc, another Hellenic Marshall Islands company during the last Baltic dry index boom, and then jumped overboard before the DRYS nearly sank. Moreover, while he gambled hard and lost shareholders' money George Economou is an Adonis, blond, suntanned, and handsome; ladies don't tempt me.
Before taking up new share ideas, I figure I had best get in some macro views about places other than China and the USA.
So here is John Llewellyn, from London, not a particularly good-looking male but a wise one, with the outlook for Euro currency countries for 2014. He expects less austerity, more growth, and some dangerous populism. He starts by patting himself on the back:
"The 'Anglo-Saxon world', mainstream British and American commentary, fundamentally misjudged the strength of political will, not least German, to make the [Euro] project work. Predictions of the euro area’s imminent demise proved wide of the mark. In contrast, Llewellyn Consulting [his consultancy company] prided itself on its objectivity on [Europe]. While aware of economic malaise and structural fault lines, we recognised [that] European integration has been able to develop institutions to overcome crises. Indeed, crises have provided the impetus – so far – for Europe’s continued evolution and progress.
"Few EU critics have asked themselves what the continent would look like absen[t] the efforts to bind together [its] member states over the last 60-odd years. Judging from history, the answer is probably a more fractious, iniquitous, [and] protectionist, and less prosperous [Europe].
[However], "the euro area economy continues flat. Aggregate output may have stabilised, but a sustainable recovery is hard to detect. The financial sector is fragmented and dysfunctional, and the[re are] uncertainties over the impact of the ECB [European Central Bank supervision].
"Much of the periphery remains acutely depressed, with jobless rates at historical highs, and risk appetite and investment spending dishearteningly low. [Moreover], deflation is emerging as a serious threat when outstanding debt levels (public and private) remain elevated. The process of deleveraging is therefore subject to additional inertia; the threat of something akin to secular stagnation is rising.
"Particularly disturbing is that the current situation reflects the impact of policies introduced to save the single currency. Extended and deep-seated fiscal consolidation within a close-knit trading zone [along] with efforts to accelerate structural reform, added to downward pressures on output, employment, and the price level. And monetary conditions have not been sufficiently loose to offset the[se] effects.
"This is encouraging a combination of 'austerity fatigue' and political polarization [moving toward] next May’s European parliamentary elections. Unless there are positive growth surprises early [next] year, we suspect that the prevailing policy mix will have reached its limits, and be progressively unwound.
"Over the course of 2014, we expect some combination of the following initiatives:
Considerable slippage in fiscal consolidation programs, if not explicit fiscal expansion. This could extend to Germany, where the new grand coalition is likely to prove more pro-euro than its predecessor.
Less enthusiastic commitments to structural reform, [or] adoption of some interventionist and protectionist palliatives to preserve jobs, maintain social stability, and curry favor with disaffected ‘have nots’ and [voters].
Yet more unorthodoxy [by] the ECB. Quite what form this will take and how the more conservative central banks in the euro system will respond is [unknown]. However, inflation is certainly no constraint on additional policy action.
The activation of further bail-outs, and debt write-downs.
"Therefore 2014 [will] be more challenging and dangerous for Eurozone financial markets than the surprisingly calm 2013."
Mr. Llewellyn's forecasts are hardly likely to tempt us to get into European shares, particularly not those from the unreformed periphery. That means companies at the mercy of government redistribution, or populist or inflationary policies in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal-- and perhaps France where both John and your editor lived a long time.
Confirmation, if it was needed, of my skeptical attitude to China came with news today that the Central Bank has been feeding liquidity to large Chinese banks to stop interest rates rising. This despite official government support for 'marketization' of interest rates and funding.
Gruessli. Here is a challenge. Today's headline at the Neue Zuercher Zeitung website reads: "Das Fed beginnt mir dem Tapering". Find the grammatical error. The winner will get a 3-mo trial subscription or an extension of subscription worth $149.
Your editor is on cloud 9 now that one of her US biotech shares is up 40% on massive volume thanks to an FDA approval after all. While our biotech maven found this one for me, it was not written about here because we don't do US shares. This made up for the web-site going down for a time when I wanted to file earlier.
More for paid subscribers follows including a Greek takeaway and a new stock idea from a well-respected British chronicler of investment ideas and news from Hong Kong, China, Norway, Britain, Holland, Mongolia, and Mexico.
The Viper is Coming Tonight; the Taper Next Month
Another news-laden day as the markets rush to complete business before the Christmas-New Year hiatus.
Today I offer the first predictions for 2014 as promised, from key player China. This is a cop-out, helping me deflect a decision on what the Fed will do next. I am reminded of the old joke about the window-wiper with a foreign accent who calls to say "the Viper is coming tonight".
The Taper is coming next month.
I attended conferences about the economies of China and Greece so far this week, and in both cases rubbed shoulders with some major investors and fund managers. About China the mood was mostly negative at NYC's Confucius Institute for Business, jointly sponsored by State University of NY and the Nanjing University of Finance & Economics. We were addressed by Finance Prof Zhicun Bian of Nanjing on the new Chinese economic reforms. [My quotes are from his translator and the translated Chinese Power Points presentation complete with US business clichés translated from the Chinese.]
Apart from rah-rah cheer-leading for more "win-win" bilateral trade and investment, Prof. Bian's remarks tended toward fluffiness. For example, over the vexed and politically contentious RMB exchange rate with the US$dollar, he cited "revolution and innovation in [the] exchange rate regime to reduce the Sino-US trade surplus," with no details beyond that it was being lab-tested in Shanghai. Relaxed rules on forex in the "pilot program" might (or might not) be extended outside the Special Free Trade Zone. In the interim, RMB capital accounts will be allowed there to encourage the more but still un-free movement of funds.
There will be measures to prevent double taxation. There will be financial supervision and rules to make financial markets more efficient. He spoke of the "marketization of RMB exchange rates". No details given.
In 10 years, Prof. Bian predicted, the RMB will float freely and be convertible in capital accounts. But the interim steps remain an enigma.
China wants to cut exports and boost consumption. China needs to make it easier for small and medium sized firms to get capital. However, there were few details on how the banking system could be reformed to achieve these ends.
China needs to encourage people to spend rather than stuffing money into the mattress for a rainy day: healthcare, retirement, education, better housing, other social safety net goods not provided by the state. China, Prof. Bian said, needs to "reduce civilian savings and stimulate domestic demand." But did not talk about creating new safety nets for the Chinese to stop them over-saving.
Instead, he talked (as does Beijing) about how hidden income is creating the distortions, and claims that somehow confiscating illegal and graft money would remove income gaps. To get more people into the middle class, a reform of the income distribution and social security systems is needed. What we have been told is that there will be a more "proactive fiscal policy", whatever that will mean.
He did mention that new banks can now be established by well-qualified private capital. There are now 23 private banks which were approved by China' State Administration for Industry & Commerce, but how much funding they represent Prof. Bian could not tell us.
He said controls on how much interest rates can be charged have been loosened. He spoke of promoting equity finance. He mentioned developing and standardizing the bond market. He hinted at direct financing by private capital of the finance system.
We all know the environment is in desperate need of clean-up. Nothing was said about this beyond noting the need.
Prof. Bian made a pitch for narrowing the income gap between rich and poor, between China's regions, between urban and rural Chinese, but did not mention how "excessively high income" would be snatched in order to "lead to a fully well-off society in the foreseeable future" and greater "regional coordination."
We know that state and local government financing is distorting the economy by prioritizing or monopolizing loans to feed large local government projects and the biggest state-owned companies. But the Chinese power structure would resist any threat from such reforms now, which is why they weren't mentioned in this polite colloquium.
In my opinion, the new Communist party line for 2014 may still mean a growth target of c7%. However no such target was even mentioned in the Plenum session last week. Under post-Mao Chinese folklore, a lower growth rate is assumed to result in political unrest and challenges to the power structure, political instability Beijing won't risk. I think China is caught between the need to liberalize its economy for needed growth and the risk that its political control can elude the power elite. It is trying to get mini-reforms into place without losing power or deflecting GNP growth.
More for paid subscribers follows from Mongolia, Britain, Finland, Israel, Mexico (a veritable piñata of news), South Africa, Panama, Canada, Japan and Spain.
My Borderland Girlfriends
One of the joys of growing up a middle-class New Yorker was the multi-ethnic environment. As a baby, I was fed pastina thanks to the mothers of my contemporaries Rosalie and Clementina, Sicilian Americans who lived in our building. As a teenager, I had two Ukrainian-American friends, Marsha and Michele, who also lived in our northern Manhattan elevator-less apartment building. The girls attended a Roman Catholic private school, Mother Cabrini, but were shunned by classmates because the nuns said they were going to hell.
Marsha and Michele are Uniate Catholics whose ancestors moved to Pennsylvania from the western part of Ukraine, a country much in the news these days.
Their ancestors had accepted papal supremacy during a period when Poland ruled the area. In return for recognizing Rome rather than Constantinople as the religious HQ, Uniates were allowed to keep all their other traditions: celebrating Christmas and Easter according to the Orthodox dates; crossing themselves 'backwards'; and having married priests. There are also some different definitions of the link between the Father and the Son in the Credo, but I am not sure of the exact terms.
The girls (including a baby sister, Monica, not my friend) attended a Uniate church in the Lower East Side with their parents where services were in Old Church Slavonic. After that we would meet Sundays at the Central Park ice-rink where my mother took us skating, as their mother didn't skate. Their father, then a broker with Merrill Lynch, didn't either.
Ukraine in Slavic languages means border. It was fought over by the ancestors of today's Russians and Swedes or Poles, and later between the Russian and the Austro-Hungarian emperors at times when Poland was out of the equation.
The country historically was where the first Slav conversions to Christianity took place. From Kiev the religion moved eastward to what is now Russia and Belarus.
I am reminded of Marsha and Michele with Ukrainian politics today. The western Uniate side of the country, where their families originated, is pro-European, hoping to join the EU. The east is red. And the rest is the muddle in the middle.
Both families left the big walk-up apartments as our parents got older. Marsha and Michele went to Georgetown University and majored in Russian, easy for them. Then I lost touch. Their father died at age 93 in 2003 as the oldest member of the NY Stock Exchange.
Marsha works for NYU and Michele is a mother of 4. Baby sister Monica died 18 months ago. Like her father, she was buried from St. Nicholas Ukrainian Catholic Church in Wilmington, Del. Donations were collected for Mgr. Martin Canavan's Ukrainian Project at the Oblates of St. Francis de Sales which presumably is better at dealing with Uniates than the Mother Cabrini nuns.
Russia is offering Ukraine a $15 bn loan plus reduced prices for Gazprom gas to keep it in the Putin camp. Anti-govt protestors in Kiev remain camped out.
Now that the SPD referendum is aus dem Weg (out of the way), six German banking associations have joined the protestors to the European Commission over the was financial transaction taxes (FTT) operate, according to The Wall Street Journal. The German coalition government now being formed is supposed to back a FTT or Tobin tax.
With a new Indian-American relationship manager, Kamal, now that Supriya was promoted away from my branch, I finally succeeded in sending an HSBC payment to our advertiser Bullion Vault. They have confirmed receipt. Kamal advises against buying physical gold now because the next 6 weeks are considered inauspicious for Indian weddings, which boost demand. However, like Chanukah, because of the vagaries of the luni-solar calendar with the winter solstice, the Chinese New Year will be early (Jan. 31, 2014) and often causes a spike in gold demand. It will be the Year of the Horse or 4711. (cf below).
Moreover, gold producers are cutting their output, most recently Petropavlovsk which after a $742 mn loss in H1, is reducing its production target for next year to 620-630 thousand ounces, vs an expected 750 thousand oz this year. It is listed on the London AIM.
In the next few days I will also produce my 2014 forecasts which I am working on using Tarot cards, tea leaves, Chinese fortune cookies, and hunches.
More for paid subscribers from Britain, Japan, China, Israel, Canada, Belgium, Italy, and Spain, with two muddles. Plus a trading alert.
I'm troubled by the SPD vote which saw 76% of party members favoring a coalition with Angela Markel's Christian Democrats and approving a leftisj coalition platform. A new German government can now be formed. The CDU was marginally short seats needed to govern Germany alone in the election 3 months ago. Yet nobody polled CDU party members to see if they favored a rise in the minimum wage, rent control, and a financial transaction tax.
In Israel over the weekend, ultra-Orthodox men wearing black hats over their side curls engaged in the public production of graven images, violating one of the 10 Commandments. They were making snowmen after a blizzard hit Jerusalem, (and also, alas, the homeless in the high Syrian hills.)
Last night I went to a Christmas party at a Harvard classmate's house, featuring caroling and eggnog, with roast ham or shrimp as the only buffet food. I'm seasonally ecumenical despite nagging kosher guilt. But what would my German ghetto forebears have said?
Harvard law school professor Alan Dershowitz is retiring at age 75 after 50 years teaching. Among the students of this also-lapsed Orthodox Jew was Pres. Obama.
Harvard is always to blame. Today parts of the campus were locked down because of a bomb threat. Unlike it was from Jews. Apart from the modern Science Center, one of the buildings which may have a hidden bomb is Victorian-style Sever Hall. I wrote a poem about Sever as an undergraduate:
Sever Hall once stood as/A monster of renown
Too ugly just to stand there/Too costly to tear down.
Some architect 'tis certain/Must list among his sins
The heinous crime of pouring/New wine into old skins.
With the Dow up c25% this year and Nasdaq up c28%, pity the brokerage forecasters who have to give their outlook for 2014. The analysts are not allowed to tell customers that stocks are expensive. To hint at there being any bubbles anywhere in the investing firmament is taboo.
More for paid subscribers from the Cayman Islands, Ireland, China, Jordan, Israel, Britain, India Australia, Indonesia, Colombia, Singapore, Spain, Germany, Canada, and Holland.
Our model portfolios are up on the website at www.global-investing.com for readers to view. Everyone can see the closed positions table but only current subscribers get access to our current holdings and advice in the stocks and bond portfolio and the closed-end and exchange-traded funds portfolios.
For paid subscribers there are some important new moves today.
Friday the 13th
It's Friday the 13th so people worry. But forget about euroland default risks. Stop worrying about Puerto Rico bonds. Don't fret about India's high inflation (Nov. came in 11.4% up from Nov. 2012) or low growth (industrial production fell 1.8% in Oct.) Stop obsessing about the impact on smaller emerging markets of the coming end of the Fed's taper. They will not doom us.
One key emerging area loan market is expected to blow up in 2014. It is not Greece, Slovakia, or Ireland in Euroland. It is not India despite those lousy numbers, because Indian interest rates will be raised perhaps even before the election by its independent central bank. Brazil will exit its funk. Neither Guam nor the Virgin Islands nor Puerto Rico will default on tax-free bonds.
The problem of default is from China.
"Chinese regulators are pushing banks to strengthen their balance sheets as concern mounts that slowing economic growth may lead to an increase in bad debt. A record 2.6 trillion yuan ($427 bn) of interest and principal on securities issued by non-financial companies must be repaid next year, 19% more than this year", Bloomberg writes. It adds:
"Ten-year AAA corporate bond yields surged 89 basis points since Dec. 31  to 6.18%, touching a record 6.23% on Nov. 27. That compares with a 70 basis-point rise to 2.68% for similar-rated notes globally.
"People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s signal the central bank will act to prevent excessive leverage has contributed to the surge in borrowing costs and forced many firms to delay financing plans. Rising interest rates may cause a “partial debt crisis to explode,” the official China Securities Journal [editorialized] Nov. 26.
"'The probability of default will get much higher in 2014 as maturing debt reaches a record,' said Shi Lei, the Beijing- based head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities, a unit of the nation’s 2nd-biggest insurance company. 'The central bank’s policy of controlling leverage, which may last a long time, will crowd out companies with bad credit profiles and, ultimately, help restructure the economy.'
"Following the Communist Party’s Nov. plenum, China’s leaders pledged to allow market forces a “decisive” role in allocati[ng] resources. Société Générale China economist Yao Wei said th[is] signals the government may stop saving troubled companies [ed. or municipalies] which can’t meet debt obligations and allow the 1st bond default in the coming 12 months.
"'If the government is going to let market forces play an important role, it should let those doomed companies fail,' said Yao. 'In industries with overcapacity, such as steel and shipbuilding, there’s a higher likelihood of bond defaults.'"
Jane Bauer of Bank of America Merrill Lynch research writes that Global Emerging Market Bond debt flows are again negative (as they have been all year except for one week). This she blames on Fed taper fears. Investors need to sharpen their pencils and differentiate between higher-risk emerging markets and the rest. It's not the Fed they need to fear. Historically, high US interest rates have not hit emerging market bonds.
Your editor just turned down a $350/hour consulting gig offered for next Monday to instead attend a lecture by Finance Prof. Zhin Cun Bian of Nanjing University, showing how seriously she views China default risk.
My report on Durig 'exotic' yankee bond offerings yesterday resulted in praise from our most experience bond-market-reader. He wrote: "shops like that are all about big commissions and working in unregulated gray areas. Things often end badly for investors but the broker ends up with a yacht."
More for paid subscribers follows from Ireland, China, Japan, Mexico, Thailand, and Denmark: