Would You Buy Vale?
Today President Trump decided to battle the Freedom Caucus which successfully blocked the attempt to repeal the Obamacare laws. Having been a political independent for most of his life, the president is not beholden to Tea Party element, nor to other parts of the congressional Republican Party. What he will try to do may not be consistent, and may be ugly. It will require crossing the aisle to work with Democrats, and may actually serve the US national interest.
Today's blog will be short and sweet because I have finally gotten back control of my email account from google, thanks to the webmaster realizing that changing the password I use and then sending me a message in that account telling me about this would not actually get me into the account.... Read more »
Today British PM Theresa May delivered the “Brexit Letter” to European Union President Donald T. The T is for Tusk, in case you were wondering, the Polish president of the EU Commission.
As promised here is something I got out of the Qwafafew quantitative analysts' club discussion of exchange-traded funds last night. Long-time club guru Matt Moran helped us retroactively work out how money was made by users of the CBOE “skew”index. From Europe, and particularly Ireland, punters could front-run American investors with Chicago Board bets against the smart money expecting a Clinton victory.
Intervening when US markets were closed in reaction to boosts for Trump in chatrooms, twitter, and social media—what Moran called “stocktwits”--these overseas betters on skew, or tail risk (the odds on an unexpected move of markets—were able to make gains dozens of times larger than those who merely bought and sold the CBOE index. They were 6 hours ahead of investors in the US who were still asleep.
Mr Moran now has worked out a new way to play social media in the future with a “stocktwits” chatroom index for social media using the S&P 25 index of large US stocks. Of course, once it becomes a way to hedge political outcomes with a systematic single move, the gains from an oddball outlying outcome will have to be shared with more people. Mispricing will be reduced.
But still I am impressed by the ingenuity of Matt Moran's stocktwits play based on what he learned looking back at performance of US volatility and skew indexes during the 2016 election campaign.
More for paid subscribers follows from Canada, India, Israel, Finland, China, Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, Hong Kong, South Africa, Australia, Chile, and Argentina.
Free At Last
It is to a Latino, Hugo, that I owe my liberation from the hackers, after 11 days of future search for help. He has to be better because he has just a trace of a Spanish accent. Most of the tech cognoscenti I dealt with are no more knowledgeable than this 20th century-born editor on how the pipes and links on the web work, I have now concluded.
To celebrate tonight I will attend a meeting on exchange traded-funds by my old pal Herb who invented "country funds", a kind of ETF, two decades ago when working for Deutsche Bank, as his guest. I will write up anything I learn for you all tomorrow, assuming the system doesn't revent to insecurity again.
More follows from Germany, Latin America, Canada, Korea, Israel, and Hong Kong for the paid subscribers among you. We will not be having to purchase a dedicated server to provide you with issues after all but getting the cash flow up is always useful when one is spending money on tech support and dehacking--none of which worked since March 17. Read more »
Hacker Wins Again
After my c-suite was reactivated over the weekend, my access to my emails was briefly re-established with the help of our webhosting service. However, I could not get my cable company to redirect my emails to the briefly functioning corporate account.
Then with extreme idiocy I tried to change the password on my email account....
And back came the topless lady and the redirecting to an account not part of my system. So I went back to the Time Warner Spectrum cable company and they told me to download a program called malwarebytes, distributed from Chicago but offering software from Ireland. Since all this crud begain on St. Paddy's Day I though perhaps I had won the Blarney Stone...
The downloaded program ran and found nada, nichevo, nichts, rien. But of course I knew that there was an issue. So I logged out of the laptop and tried to log into it again. The password I use did not work. The back up password the computer store guys set did not work either. I am now locked out of my laptop. The leak seems to have been from the log-in at the gmail account that was hacked reacting (if that's the word) to the search by malwarebytes.
Anyway, for the paid amongst you, here is today's blog based on what I did before I started on the futile quest at about 11 am. There is news as the world reacts to the mess in Washington. Some of the news is a sign that I may be a tech klutz but I do know how to protect our stock positions when the market is frothy.
Sunday Tables Have Been Posted
The tables prepared for subscribers and pre-subscribers have just been posted on our website. Please visit www.global-investing.com to see the spreadsheets you are eligible to view. To make it easier use the "printer friendly" button even if you don't want to print the tables, as it makes them more readable.
More for paid subscribers follows:
What Threatens Us Corrected
This is a great day for our portfolio as several of our laggard stock picks have risen in price by double-digit levels overnight. Details to be provided to paid subscribers below. Meanwhile all eyes are on Congress as the repeal of the Obamacare act faces a close vote. There are threats all over and not just to Americans in need of healthcare.
Wall Street was hacked again. Microsoft, IBM, and GE stocks traded down over 10% at one point in pre-market trading Fri. According to FactSet's time and sales data, 57 Microsoft shares went through at $56.9171 just after 8 am, below the opening trade of $64.90 and 12% below Thursday's close of $64.87. The next trade at 8:21 am was 40 shares at $64.95.
For IBM, 22 shares changed hands at $154.785 at the same time, down from $175.05 at 6:38 am, and down 11% from Thursday's close at $174.82. The next trade was 100 shares at $174.70 at 8:33:09. Read more »
François Fillon, the right-wing French presidential candidate, is increasingly sounding like a felon in the language of his wife, Penelope, who with two of their children were put on the staff payroll by the head of the family who also under-declared their earnings on their tax forms. If you believe le Canard Enchainé, the French weekly broadsheet gossip paper, M. Fillon collected euros 50,000 (then over $60,000) for introducing a Lebanese business man to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, a friend of Putin's who was banned from the US for criminal links.
These misdeeds mean the Front National of Marine Le Pen is now the major alternative to the left in the upcoming French poll. She has received funding from Russian banks close to the Kremlin. So the only untainted candidate with a chance to win is Emmanuel Macron, who has never run for office before, but has served in the cabinet.
As we watch our president being shafted by his own party in Congress over the rushed move to replace the ACA (Obamacare) with something better which will be worse, you realize how important it is that the person at the top knows how politics is played. Trump would have done better to have started off with tax reform which could have won bipartisan support.
More for paid subscribers follows about this matter and others with news from China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Britain, Spain, Israel, Switzerland
My Two Cents' Worth
The reason that today's attack on the British Parliament outdid Guy Fawkes is that the Catholic plotters against James I did not actually kill anyone as they were spotted in time. I am not trying to play down the seriousness of the attempt to kill the royal family then.
I am still awaiting word from my techies about the hacked computers they are working on. They missed two deadlnes they set for themselves.
More about the company reporting today from later dispatches follows:
Treason, Gunpowder, and Plot
Guy Fawkes who attacked the Mother of Parliaments in the 17th century has been topped today as what appear to have been Islamist terrorists used a car laden with explosives and guns to kill people in the Westminster area in London.
My Internet problems seem rather trivial in comparison. But they are keeping us from checking in with our family in Britain without having to telephone.
Meanwhile another attack by hackers has taken down the distribution system to subscribers to the Financial Times in New York City, a key market for the pink paper. Its distributor today gave every deliver subscriber in Manhattan and Brooklyn a copy of The New York Times rather than the FT. The is also hurting our local newspapeer because it runs short of copies and has to print more which costs money. Meanwhile the FT has to extend subscriptions which is costly.
Moreover my telephone lines which are with a different phone company were supposed to be switched (without my knowledge) to Verizon. This used to happen to my late mother all the time without her doing anything. So being completely paranoid by now I think that is also the work of the hackers. I used my cellphone to record the messages coming from the hackers who were trying to get me to call them and no doubt further hurt my ability to function.
More for paid subscribers follows, including an annual report, from Hong Kong, Spain, Finland, India, and Britain.