Advertiser Upheavals

Wed, 2014/11/26 - 3:01pm | Your editor

We have ended our distribution of the full daily blog to the website, www.talkmarkets.com, after they posted it without the promised contractual delay or embargo last week. This allowed access to our blog identical to what was provided to paid subscribers to be made available those visiting the talkmarkets site. So our paid subscribers might not have been able to trade before talkmarkets users did.

Moreover, rather than using their ad space on our website to promote other newsletters from www.talkmarkets.com, they promoted www.global-investing.com itself on our site allegedly using “the wrong widget” which failed to exclude our own headlines from our site.

This means that continuing to allow them to allegedly promote our work amounted to a license to pirate it in violation of copyright law to our own pre-subscribers, our target for future signups. We cannot continue in business were this to continue.

If this notice is not posted on www.talkmarkets.com today, we will sue for violation of copyright and false advertising.

 

Another advertiser on our site, www.bullionvault.com, ran into data problems last night during the “dead zone”, when US and Canadian gold-trading has ended but before Asian trading has opened. During that time, one of its price data sources fed incorrect gold prices to many sites. Here is what Adrian Ash, head of research at bullionvault, reported:
“Gold briefly showed above $1400 per oz instead of $1200. 'If only!', you might say.

“On bullionvault, this error affect the gold chart, an error the IT team have now corrected. More importantly, the bad data also affect prices quoted on the order board. That resulted in a few deals being struck far above the actual spot prices.

“This error is also being corrected. The small number of customers involved have been informed. If you have not heard from us separately, then you were not affected.

“To unwind the system error, all gold deals executed during last night's brief but significant anomaly are bein reversed. Commissions paid on those trades are being refunded.

“This is a reasonable and necessary adjustment to ensure the markeplace operates fairly to all participants. We are reviewing our datasources in full.

“Because no one can guarantee absolute accuracy at all times, a 'fail safe' policy must also be ready for correcting any erroneous trades resulting from bad data, [a] policy bullionvault is applying today.”

 

Vivian adds: Because of the pending Swiss referendum on Sunday which would call for its CB, the Swiss National Bank, to hold 15% of its reserves in gold, and to never sell any of it, there is some upheaval in the yellow metal market. My view is that the very high dollar is not long for this world, which may make gold look cheaper when it is priced in RMB or rupees, even if it then becomes more expensive in greenbacks.

In anticipation, Asians are buying right now more gold than the world is producing. At some point this will feed into the gold market here, in Britain, and in other areas. I like to keep some of my assets in precious metals, via www.bullionvault.com for physical gold, and via a US ETF for paper gold.

 

There will be no blog tomorrow for Thanksgiving. News from Israel, Argentina, Canada, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, and Britain, plus a new share recommendation for some of you to follow.

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Advertiser Upheavals

Wed, 2014/11/26 - 3:00pm | Your editor

We have ended our distribution of the full daily blog to the website, www.talkmarkets.com, after they posted it without the promised contractual delay or embargo last week. This allowed access to our blog identical to what was provided to paid subscribers to be made available those visiting the talkmarkets site. So our paid subscribers might not have been able to trade before talkmarkets users did.

Moreover, rather than using their ad space on our website to promote other newsletters from www.talkmarkets.com, they promoted www.global-investing.com itself on our site allegedly using “the wrong widget” which failed to exclude our own headlines from our site.

This means that continuing to allow them to allegedly promote our work amounted to a license to pirate it in violation of copyright law to our own pre-subscribers, our target for future signups. We cannot continue in business were this to continue.

If this notice is not posted on www.talkmarkets.com today, we will sue for violation of copyright and false advertising.

 

Another advertiser on our site, www.bullionvault.com, ran into data problems last night during the “dead zone”, when US and Canadian gold-trading has ended but before Asian trading has opened. During that time, one of its price data sources fed incorrect gold prices to many sites. Here is what Adrian Ash, head of research at bullionvault, reported:
“Gold briefly showed above $1400 per oz instead of $1200. 'If only!', you might say.

“On bullionvault, this error affect the gold chart, an error the IT team have now corrected. More importantly, the bad data also affect prices quoted on the order board. That resulted in a few deals being struck far above the actual spot prices.

“This error is also being corrected. The small number of customers involved have been informed. If you have not heard from us separately, then you were not affected.

“To unwind the system error, all gold deals executed during last night's brief but significant anomaly are bein reversed. Commissions paid on those trades are being refunded.

“This is a reasonable and necessary adjustment to ensure the markeplace operates fairly to all participants. We are reviewing our datasources in full.

“Because no one can guarantee absolute accuracy at all times, a 'fail safe' policy must also be ready for correcting any erroneous trades resulting from bad data, [a] policy bullionvault is applying today.”

 

Vivian adds: Because of the pending Swiss referendum on Sunday which would call for its CB, the Swiss National Bank, to hold 15% of its reserves in gold, and to never sell any of it, there is some upheaval in the yellow metal market. My view is that the very high dollar is not long for this world, which may make gold look cheaper when it is priced in RMB or rupees, even if it then becomes more expensive in greenbacks.

In anticipation, Asians are buying right now more gold than the world is producing. At some point this will feed into the gold market here, in Britain, and in other areas. I like to keep some of my assets in precious metals, via www.bullionvault.com for physical gold, and via a US ETF for paper gold.

 

There will be no blog tomorrow for Thanksgiving. News from Israel, Argentina, Canada, Brazil, Spain, Mexico, and Britain, plus a new share recommendation for some of you to follow.

Read more »

BRICS and Beyond

Tue, 2014/11/25 - 1:56pm | Your editor

Today's issue, we promised, would focus on Asia, in fact on India. Being a married to a grandchild of the British raj in India, I cannot resist going all

A la Modi

Nomura Hong Kong generously provided us with its customer buy list we are getting our local writers to look at the Nomura ideas, starting with India today. The main takeaway from the Nomura report is:

“Region-wide Asia-Pacific nominal GDP on an equity market cap-weighted basis, our economists’ individual-country forecasts aggregate to 7.1% growth in 2015 (i.e. 4.3% real growth and 2.8% inflation), a decent pick-up from this year’s market cap-weighted 6.9% nominal growth (4.2% real growth and 2.7% inflation) – with stronger nominal growth in (more export-oriented) Korea, Taiwan and Singapore (in all three of which we recommend Overweight equity allocations) plus Thailand (where we are Neutral), which is recovering from very subdued 2014 growth.”

 

My favorite pick is not an ADR stock, Matahari Dept Stores in Indonesia. That's where I want to shop.

 

Today our band of writers contributed lots of news from around the world not confined to a continent.

Before they get going, here is Adrian Ash on sentiment over gold. India is rumored to be about to set new restrictions on gold imports but that is not his subject:

“With gold and silver prices now down 40% and 70% from their 2011 peaks, it isn't just professional bank analysts turning sour on precious metals. The froth really is being blown off the bubble in 'gold bug' opinion too.
“Sure, there are pockets of pro-gold sentiment. This weekend's Swiss gold referendum, for example, has come about thanks to 100,000 people signing a petition as part of Switzerland's direct democracy system.
“But that equals less than 2% of registered voters. Opinion polls put the 'no' camp well ahead for Sunday's vote.

“On the bulletin boards, meantime, just check the comments section underneath a Daily Telegraph story this month. Eight of the 16 people commenting are bearish. Eight. Out of sixteen. For a gold-friendly news-site...with a hardcore gold-friendly following...that is a big turnaround.
“On that same page, what's more, a readers' poll is also split right down the middle, with 45% saying the gold drop is a 'buying opportunity' and another 45% saying it isn't.
“The last ten per cent? They're the most honest. Because they say they would never buy gold either way.
“That in truth applies to the vast majority of the developed Western world's savers. Gold and silver are a minority investment.” (Adrian writes a daily column for www.bullionvault.com, our advertiser.)

More for paid subscribers from India, Canada, Brazil, Britain, Spain, Ireland, China, and Hong Kong, along with a new recommendation.

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Oil and Liquidity II

Mon, 2014/11/24 - 2:43pm | Your editor

It is odd that the lesson of shale is not affecting either side in the debate about other sources of oil and gas. The Saudis revealed at the current OPEC conference that they are not cutting back their oil output despite the fact that it will pressure fellow-members who face uneconomic prices from the current glut. This is clearly for geopolitical reasons.

The huge drop in the price of crude is clearly making extreme sources of the stuff neither necessary nor affordable. So ultra-deep drilling under the Brazilian salt shelf or in the Gulf of Mexico no longer is an obvious investment.

Nor is the death of the Athabasca tundra and trees in Canada justifying in order to extract crude from its tarsands and pipeline it south. Keystone XL is becoming irrelevant. King Coal is abdicating. Nuclear makes sense. That is the current message for energy and coal companies, those supplying them with services be it rigs or railroads, and electric utilities. We don't have to put up with global warming.

But there is also a message for the ecolo-greens and nationalists too. There is no longer any justification for the fracking “gold rush” to continue its wasteful and anti-environmental ways. Oil and gas can be extracted with less damage to air, water, and roads with only a modest increase in costs. The price of alternatives can become more competitive. Countries lacking oil like China, Japan, India, can go nuclear again. More on green stocks for paid subscribers below.

Dependence on OPEC and the majors is being reduced without any need for political grandstanding. Even Israel has offshore gas which can be used for geopolitical ends around the Arab world. That is the main reason I am thankful going into this Thanksgiving.

Earnings scout Nick Raich writes that “last week 24 S&P 500 companies reported 3Q 2014 results with 18 (or 75%) of them having their 4Q 2014 EPS estimates lowered, on average, by -4.22% afterwards.” This downward move is the result of guidance, hints given during conference calls by the reporting companies. It bodes well for those who invest outside the USA like us. More key index news for paid subscribers below.

What is on the table at Thanksgiving is ambiguous. We call it turkey; the Portuguese call it peru; the French call it dinde (ie d'inde, from India). But the big bird in fact is mostly American, a creature which lives in the wild around the Boston suburb where my family live, not very far from Plymouth Rock as the turkey flies. (Wild turkeys fly.)

Now my hairdresser (from São Paulo) told me that boneless turkey is sold as “chester” in Brazil by Perdigão, a big meat packer. De-boned turkeys are not widely available in theUS and I never heard of a Thanksgiving “chester”. Did you?

Getting your turkey from a Paris butcher means he removes the spindly splint bones in the leg which make it hard to carve. It's done with a twist when removing the foot which US supermarket suppliers seem not to have mastered.

More for paid subscribers including a new buy and news from Britain, Switzerland, France, The Netherlands, Belgium, Japan, Asia, Spain, Panama, Canada, and South Africa.

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Model Portfolios Updated

Sun, 2014/11/23 - 1:11pm | Your editor

The portfolios have been updated, one, showing closed positions, visible to the world. The others, showing our stocks and bonds, and our closed-end and exchange traded funds, are only for paid subscribers.

Log in to www.global-investing.com to view the tables. Use the printer-friendly button to make the spreadsheets narrower, even if you do not want to print them.

While on the site, note that there are links to other newsletters on the left side of the welcome page which you can click from our site. These are other financial letters which may be of interest to readers, mostly focused on the US market. I do not control which sites advertise, and last week I was surprised to discover that one of the was plugging wild conspiracy theories about the murder of JFK and the terrorist 9/11 attack. Please do not hold me responsible.

More for paid subscribers follows.

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Bull In A China Shop

Fri, 2014/11/21 - 12:52pm | Your editor

Yesterday Goldman Sachs predicted that 2015 would be the year of Asia. Asian markets ex-Japan are expected to produce a return of 11% for US investors, the investment bank forecast. Japan will produce a gain of 7%.

PM Abe of Japan will probably call a snap election after dissolving the Diet. We prepared for this late Thursday. (Paid subscribers should read our trading alert note below.)

China also caused waves across our portfolio today. First of all, in an admission that something was needed to set GNP growth back on track, China cut interest rates in a new stimulus initiative.

Then some of the details of the deal on cutting carbon emissions made with the other gross polluter (the USA) were revealed. Bloomberg wrote:
“China, which does nothing in small doses, will need about 1,000 nuclear reactors, 500,000 wind turbines, or 50,000 solar farms as it takes up the fight against climate change.” More on what this means for paid subscribers below. The impact of Chinese measures is global and we highlight some of the best gains so far today.

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Trading alert

Thu, 2014/11/20 - 3:04pm | Your editor

Trading alerts are only for paid subscribers. Join them by subscribing to our newsletter at www.global-investing.com

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Wrong Ticker

Thu, 2014/11/20 - 2:42pm | Your editor

I gave the wrong ticker symbol for our latest stock pick.

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Going Green and Saving Green

Thu, 2014/11/20 - 2:28pm | Your editor

I spent most of Wednesday between the computer repair shop, the Doubletree hotel where an investor day was being held by one of our recommended companies, and Bloomberg's offices and mine, all a short walking distance from each other. It was bitter cold. But given the weather in Buffalo, I figure I got off lightly. However, I refused an invitation to bundle up again so we could be treated to dinner by our son, who is visiting. I preferred to simply cook.

A week from today is the heaviest traffic day of the year, when US families gather together to feast on turkey and give thanks. What makes it worse for us is that we will head north to New England, just as a gazillion college students hit the road to head home. So we are taking a train.

In both cases we are saving greenbacks plus going green by not using an auto, probably contrary to the trend—which is both to cite the ghastly cold weather as a sign that global warming is a myth, and to burn lots of gasoline as it has become much cheaper.

Today we consider a way to play cheap fuel prices which directly offsets one of our oil plays. It is a new buy-and-hold pick. I am proceeding with it despite objections from our Latin expert who is being superstitious.

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Benitec

Wed, 2014/11/19 - 6:26pm | Your editor

For paid subscribers only, meet Dr KSS and Benitec, our stock he recommended.

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